Tuesday, March 21

Sports Economist Study: Second Shot Gamble Fails to Pay Off at Masters

The following press release comes from Wake Forest University. And I'm sure it will have no bearing on Phil Mickelson in the upcoming Masters.

That tee shot lost in the rough or hit in the water at Augusta is likely to be followed by a risky, aggressive second shot — a decision you might expect from a recreational golfer, not a pro. 

Research by Wake Forest University sports economist Todd McFall suggests that a faction of players beginning holes with penalty strokes will regularly take greater risks in their subsequent shots to avoid any additional strokes — a decision predicted by behavioral economics that can lead to disastrous consequences for golfers’ performances. 

"Our findings support the basic tenants of prospect theory  top players have a hard time sticking to their game plan, even after a setback," said McFall.

"When players try to do too much to compensate for a poor prior shot, we found it has few benefits and often sets them back even further. Even for top professionals, it's important to find a way to avoid making mental errors. Think about Zach Johnson's 2007 Masters win where he didn't try to reach a green with his second shot all week, yet birdied 11 of 16 holes. He never tried to overreach."

The study presents a rare glimpse into the decision-making patterns of professional golfers by using real data from more than 10 years of U.S. PGA Tour events. For this research, McFall had access to the PGA Tour's ShotLink database, which contains a record of every shot a professional player takes on the tour.

McFall studied golfers playing on par five holes, comparing the behaviors of players in three categories: those penalized for a lateral water hazard tee shot, those penalized for an out-of-bounds tee shot, and those with no penalties on their first shot. The data showed that golfers with an out-of-bounds penalty or a lateral water hazard penalty were much more likely to adapt riskier approaches compared with their non-penalized rivals.

"Loss aversion leads penalized golfers to violate not only basic economic principles regarding efficient decision making, but also golf orthodoxy, which is to play one shot at a time regardless of previous outcomes." McFall said. "The cost they suffer for this is inefficient performance and ultimately, higher scores."

1 comment:

Iain said...

Ah the Masters, I will be in my armchair watching to see what tactics are used by the worlds best players around Augusta. Will they gamble or be like a seasoned chess player and not take the big shots. Anyway it will be great to watch and learn. Interesting post, Thanks